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In 2020, housing markets across the country surprised many with a stronger-than-expected rebound in the second half of the year despite record-high unemployment rates and significant job losses.

Calgary did not hit record-high sales or prices in the third or fourth quarters, but still posted some of the strongest sales relative to the past five years. This was nearly enough to offset the initial losses recorded during the first shutdown caused by the pandemic.

It is expected some of the momentum recorded at the end of 2020 will continue into 2021, fuelled by exceptionally low lending rates and pent-up demand. While sales are expected to rise by nearly five per cent on an annual basis in 2021, persistent economic challenges are expected to prevent stronger growth in our housing market.

Reduction in supply relative to sales is the primary reason the Calgary housing market returned to more balanced conditions by the end of 2020. The pullback in new listings relative to sales activity resulted in inventory levels falling to the lowest levels seen in the past several years.

As we move into 2021, we anticipate new listings will start to rise, as COVID-19 likely caused many homeowners to delay listing their homes. We could start to see some supply come back in 2021, as concerns regarding the spread of the virus ease. Persistently high unemployment rates could also weigh on some existing homeowners who may need to sell their homes.

Growth in supply is expected to offset some of the gains in sales, pushing our market to the upper bounds of balanced conditions and slowing price recovery. However, the price gains that occurred at the end of 2020 are not expected to be eroded and 2021 annual prices are forecasted to improve by over one per cent.

NEW HOME & RENTAL

Slowing economic conditions spread to the new-home sector in 2020. Starts in the city declined by 22 per cent in 2020. Most of the decline was driven by multi-family starts, which had eased by 31 per cent. Slower starts contributed to the decline in new-home inventories from the peak levels recorded early in the year.

The slower activity in 2020 will help prevent further supply pressure to the market over the near term. Starts levels in 2021 are expected to remain low relative to historical levels. This will help slow the supply pressure coming from the new-home market.

Slower migration, combined with completions of new purpose-built rental product, is impacting rental market vacancies and rental rates. As it will take time for borders to open and international migration to return, the rental market is expected to continue to struggle into 2021.

According to Urban Analytics, newer purpose-built rental saw occupancy rates fall, as the addition of new supply created a challenging rental market. They also noted many landlords were providing free rent incentives and rental rate reductions.

With more projects expected to be completed over the next year and migration patterns expected to remain slow, absorption of the rental product will be slow, keeping vacancy rates slightly elevated and ensuring rent incentives will remain persistent in the market.

Low interest rates are likely encouraging many first-time homebuyers to enter the ownership market. However, ample rental supply, rental incentives and significant uncertainty in the economy could reduce any sense of urgency among current renters considering a shift into ownership, potentially preventing stronger sales growth in 2021.

Please read the full forecast here.