The Alberta economy continues to struggle. 2019 marks the fifth year since oil prices first collapsed. Following widening price differentials and continued difficulties getting energy product to market, we saw governments step in with production curtailments. This helped narrow the spread on price, likely preventing further pullbacks, but it also weighed on energy investment activity and overall economic growth.

The continued challenges have caused Alberta to move into the category of slowest growing economy in 2019 compared to other provinces. Shifts to ease curtailments in 2020 and additional transportation capacity are expected to support some economic growth this year. However, global risk will likely create volatility in oil prices and Investment activity is not expected to change, remaining at half the levels that were seen prior to the 2014 oil price crash.

While several mechanisms have been put in place by the provincial government to encourage business investment and support diversification, at the same time, recent budget constraints could impact growth in the public sector. The shifts to encourage business investments will likely take longer to take hold, while the easing in the public sector will be more immediate. The result is an economy that is expected to be marginally better in 2020, keeping housing markets stable at lower levels in 2020.

TOP CONSIDERATIONS FOR 2020:

• A new normal in the market: supply adjusting to slower sales activity, providing conditions that are more supportive to a stable price environment.

• Market improvements are expected to be driven by gains for lower priced product, while easing prices and oversupply persist in the upper price ranges.

• Supply adjustments are expected to continue, helping to eventually push the market toward balanced conditions.

• Prices are expected to stabilize over the year, but remain just slightly lower than last year’s annual levels.

• Stable mortgage rates, previous price declines and job growth should support modest improvements in sales, but these will remain at lower levels.

• Employment risk weighs on the market, which could result in further declines in sales and prices.

Please read the full report here.

• If conditions in the energy sector get worse, this could have downside risk on confidence, employment and wages, creating persistent oversupply and steeper-than-expected price declines in the housing market.

• Signs of supply adjustments are present in the market. If the downside risk is averted, then the amount of oversupply should start to ease by the end of the year. • Unless the Canadian economy underperforms, further rate increases are expected in 2019. This will impact housing demand

• If new-home inventories and product under construction do not ease, this will prolong buyers’ market conditions in the housing market.

• Provincial and federal elections could result in changes to government spending, policies and confidence in the market.

• For those considering ownership, further resale price declines can make the resale market more attractive to purchasers compared to new homes.

The challenging economic climate in Calgary is expected to persist into 2019. While there was some evidence of stabilization in the energy sector in early 2018, issues surrounding the price differential of oil, falling global prices, a lack of market access and ability to attract investment are placing current and future growth at risk. The economic impact of recent events is not expected to translate into another recession in 2019. However, it will impact employment opportunities, consumer confidence and the housing market.

On top of energy sector concerns, we are in an environment of stricter lending conditions and higher interest rates. The Canadian economy is growing, supporting further expected gains in interest rates in 2019. Higher rates and stricter requirements come at a time when the Alberta economy still struggles with employment and wages. With further rate increases expected in the second half of 2019 and no significant improvements in the job market, resale sales activity is forecasted to remain low compared to historical standards.

Please read the full report here.

Calgary, July 3, 2018–

Many Canadian energy-related municipalities within Alberta and Saskatchewan have seen housing markets struggle over the past few years, resulting in price declines.

The recent mortgage rule changes and higher lending rates are factors weighing on demand and prices across some of those areas.

“While our economy is no longer in a recession, persistently high unemployment rates, concerns over long-term growth, rising lending costs and stricter qualifications are all weighing on the housing demand,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“Growth in new listings is starting to ease for some property types, but it is not enough to prevent continued supply growth and, ultimately, an oversupplied housing market.”

Weak sales activity in Calgary continued into June, as residential sales for the month totaled 1,896 units. This is 11 per cent below last year and 12 per cent below long-term averages. New listings continued to rise, with further inventory gains and months of supply now at 4.7 months.

High inventories in comparison to sales have generated more widespread buyers’ market conditions, causing downward pressure on prices. The city-wide benchmark price in June totaled $436,500. This is just below last month and 1.13 per cent below last year’s levels.

The detached segment of the market accounts for over 60 per cent of overall sales activity and makes up over 54 per cent of the inventory, with 4,817 units as of June. While sales have fallen and inventory has been rising across most price ranges, inventory levels for homes priced under $500,000 remain well below peak levels.

“In any market it’s extremely important to be well-informed, whether it’s about the process to get pre-approved for a mortgage or having the most up-to-date information about the prices in the community you are buying or selling in,” said CREB® president Tom Westcott.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

• Detached sales eased while new listings rose across most districts in the city after the first half of the year, keeping inventories elevated.

• The quarterly average months of supply increase compared to last year across all districts, keeping most areas in buyers’ market territory for the second quarter.

• As of the second quarter, detached benchmark prices totaled $504,033. This is just above the previous quarter, but 0.41% below last year’s levels. North East, North, North West and South districts recorded year-over-year quarterly price declines. However, only the North East district saw prices slip further over level recorded in the first quarter of this year.

• After the first half of the year, apartment sales totaled 1,396 units. This is nearly nine per cent below last year and 24 per cent below long-term averages. Easing sales were met with a decline in listings, helping to limit further growth in inventory levels. As of June, there were 1,872 apartment units in inventory, causing the months of supply to ease, averaging 6.8 months for the quarter.

• While most areas of the city are struggling with oversupply, there does appear to be some improvements. While remaining far from long-term averages, In the second quarter the months of supply edged down over first quarter levels in the city Centre, North, North West, West, South and East districts.

• The easing of the oversupply in most districts helped prevent further declines in quarterly benchmark prices. However, overall second quarter prices remain over three per cent below last year’s levels, and nearly 14 per cent below the quarterly high.

• Year-to-date sales activity fell for both semi-detached and row product across most districts, but new listings remained similar to last year in the row sector, while increasing by 22 per cent for semi-detached property types. This resulted in stronger inventory gains in the semi-detached market and pushed up the quarterly months of supply to above five months

• While row product did not see the same recent increase in inventory, gains in the previous quarters have not eased, causing the second quarter months of supply to total 5.47. This is similar to last quarter and above the second quarter of 2017 figure of 3.66.

• Semi-detached and row benchmark prices averaged $419,000 and $301,833 in the second quarter. Row prices were nearly 2 per cent higher than the previous quarter and nearly three per cent above last year’s levels. Meanwhile, semi-detached prices were similar to the first quarter, but over two per cent below 2017 levels.

• While some easing in the semi-detached market has occurred, quarterly prices are only two per cent below quarterly highs compared to the row sector which remains over 8 per cent below quarterly highs

Calgary, June 1, 2018 – 卡尔加里五月份房地产销售持续减缓，尤其的独立屋市场成交大幅下滑（应该是消费者信息不足）。同时，新上市房源却持续攀升。 整个城市上个月仅成交1,726 单元，比2017年同期降低了19%，比长线均值降了24%。其中独立屋产品段的成交量下降到了10几年来罕见的状况。（今早客户打电话咨询买房子的事，还提到目前很多工程公司都裁员了，她也被layoff了。经济的复苏，还是挺艰难的，就只听见银行不断的涨息，BC + AB不停的打起来。有些人感觉就业怎么还不如去年？）。

"贷款利率的提高、以及申请贷款的日趋艰难导致了买家对于房地产各个产品段的需求都有所减缓，" CREB®房地产局首席经济学家Ann-Marie Lurie说到，"经济条件比前几年回复了一些，但是复苏的缓慢还没有国家贷款政策调整的步伐快，一轮又一轮的"。 市场供给却没有减缓，所以目前供给房源消化月份增加到4.9个月。（卖家要是想挂牌，做好签约6-12个月的准备，要不然价格还没有降到位，合同就已经到期了）。 由于供给量仍然攀高，整个城市价格复苏之路还是缓慢的，五月底市场基准价格为$436,900，和过去6个月差不多，比去年同期低了0.6% 。 独立屋供给量在各个价位区间都增加了，但是增加量最多的是50万以上的价格区间。高价位段的房源在市场上的天数和过去几年相比，依然很高，好在比2008-2009年的经济危机时期还是要短一些。 "贷款政策的调整也抑制了很多买家调换到大房子去，同时还有一部分人则等着市场调整到他们期待的状况才出手。然而，很多社区并没有大幅房源上市，所以对于消费者来说熟悉想要购买的社区、做好功课也很重要。" CREB® 房地产局主席Tom Westcott最后补充说到。

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Prices Remain Stable Amid Economic Challenges

City of Calgary, May 1, 2018 – Calgary's real estate market continues to experience challenges as mortgage lending policy changes and ongoing economic recovery struggles impact sales. Weakened consumer demand and increasing inventory levels have prevented price recovery, maintaining a sluggish market.

CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie explained:

"The slowdown in sales is not surprising, as the economic recovery has not been strong enough to offset the impact of mortgage policy changes. While inventory levels have risen, prices have remained relatively stable, with some areas seeing price increases while others experience declines."

Market Performance

April sales remained weak, totaling 1,518 transactions, representing a 20% decrease from 2017 and 25% below the long-term average. The detached home segment experienced the most significant decline in 2018, with 2,991 units sold year-to-date, 27% below the 10-year average.

As of April’s end, active inventory stood at 7,324 units, marking a 32% increase compared to 2017. However, this remains significantly lower than the 10,129 units available during the 2008 market peak. Despite the growing supply, prices have remained relatively stable, with the city-wide benchmark price at $436,500, reflecting a 0.21% increase from both April 2017 and March 2018.

CREB® President Tom Westcott noted:

"The reality is that buyers now have more choices during the traditionally busy spring market. For sellers, they need to decide on their pricing strategy based on their individual circumstances and motivations. Meanwhile, buyers must understand that different locations and property types vary significantly, or they may misjudge their negotiation leverage."

Segment-Specific Trends

Condominium and townhouse sales have dropped to 2016 levels, while inventory in these segments has surged. This has resulted in properties remaining on the market for an average of over four months, significantly restricting price growth.

As Calgary's real estate market navigates economic headwinds and policy shifts, both buyers and sellers must remain strategic in their decision-making to adapt to evolving market conditions.

Prices remain stable compared to last year

Calgary, April2, 2018–As expected, slow sales this quarter have persisted through March in the City of Calgary. This is not a surprise, after stronger growth in sales at the end of last year following the announced changes to the lending market. First quarter sales totaled 3,423 units, nearly 18 per cent below last year’s levels and 24 per cent below long-term averages. Easing sales and modest gains in new listings caused inventories to rise and months of supply to remain above four months. “Economic conditions are slowly improving, but it has not been enough to outpace the current impact of higher lending rates and more stringent conditions,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“We are entering the most active quarters in the housing market with more inventory, which could create some price fluctuations. However, the improving economy is expected to prevent overall prices from slipping by significant amounts.”

While prices trended down on a quarterly basis, they remained relatively unchanged over last year’s levels due to modest gains in the detached sector offsetting declines in the apartment sector. The citywide benchmark price for detached product averaged $502,000 in the first quarter. This is slightly lower than the fourth quarter of last year, but comparable to levels recorded in the first quarter of last year. In March, the detached price reached $503,800, 3.6 per cent below pre-recession highs, but one per cent above the lows recorded during the recession.

“The market today is better than what we experienced at the peak of the recession,” said CREB® president Tom Westcott. “You can find good value if you’re looking to buy a home, and you can also get good value if you’re selling. Being well-informed, in any economic condition, is the key, because there are differences in the market depending on what type of property it is and where it is located.”

Detached market inventories in the first quarter of 2017 were low compared to historical standards. This year, detached inventories have averaged 2,573 units over the first quarter, 10 per cent below first quarter averages recorded during 2015 and 2016. Spring will have more inventory than last year, slowing progress on price recovery. However, the amount of price adjustment will vary depending on competing supply by location and product type.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

• While detached benchmark prices eased by 0.25 per cent over the previous quarter, the quarterly decline was not consistent across all areas. Prices were stable in both the south and south east districts, while in the city centre, prices improved over the previous quarter.

• Despite the recent easing of new listings, the apartment condominium sector continues to struggle with excess supply in the resale, new-home and rental market. This is impacting prices. Condominium apartments averaged $256,567 in the first quarter, one per cent below the previous quarter and three per cent below levels recorded in the first quarter of 2017. Overall, monthly apartment prices are over 14 per cent below the highs recorded in 2014.

• Year-over-year, attached price changes have ranged from growth of four per cent to declines of 3.7 per cent depending on the sector of the city. Prices improved in the city centre, north west and south east districts of the city. However, those gains were offset by the losses in the north east, north, west, south and east districts. Attached benchmark prices averaged $328,533 in the first quarter and remain unchanged from levels recorded at this time last year.

• Activity within the attached sector continues to vary based on row product versus semi-detached. Semi-detached prices remained relatively stable compared to last year and last quarter, thanks to recent improvements in the city centre district. Meanwhile, row prices eased slightly over the previous quarter, with prices easing across all districts compared to the fourth quarter of 2017.

THE HOUSING MARKET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARDS RECOVERY IN 2018, BUT CHALLENGES REMAIN.

Housing market conditions are expected to remain relatively unchanged in 2018, as the impact of higher lending rates and stricter lending criteria are offset by modest improvements in the economic climate. Recent changes may have prolonged the recovery period in our market, but it is not expected to completely derail the transition. The path to recovery is expected to be bumpy, as the market adjusts to a new normal. We are entering 2018 with elevated supply levels and an environment of rising rates paired with stricter lending criteria. However, the improving economy generated modest job growth and net migration last year, with expectations of further improvements into 2018.

The opposing impacts of the changes in the lending environment and economic gains are expected to cause adjustments in demand/supply balances based on price range and product type, creating pockets of over/under supply and generating different paths of price recovery. Overall, it is expected to generate conditions comparable to 2017 and the dynamics within each sector of the market will vary.

Minimal changes in sales activity are expected to be met with easing new listings for some property types, limiting the upward pressure on supply. This should help support more balanced conditions, preventing widespread benchmark price declines. More balanced market conditions will be led by the attached and detached sectors of the market, while the apartment sector will continue to struggle with excess inventory in 2018. Prices will likely continue to face some downward pressure in the apartment sector, with stabilization not expected until the latter portion of the year.

The attached sector may benefit from changes in distribution, as some demand shifts from the detached sector to the attached sector of the market, supporting modest price gains of 0.38 per cent. Easing demand in the detached sector is expected to be met with easing listings, supporting overall stability in pricing.

Please read the full report here.

The Calgary real estate market in early 2017 reflected a period of transition, influenced by economic conditions, changing buyer behavior, and evolving market trends. While signs of stabilization emerged after a prolonged downturn, challenges remained in certain property segments due to external economic factors.

Market Overview

Calgary’s housing market began the year with mixed results. Sales activity showed moderate improvement compared to the previous year, with a slight increase in buyer interest. However, inventory levels remained high, particularly in the detached and apartment condominium sectors, contributing to continued price adjustments.

Despite these challenges, market fundamentals signaled potential recovery, especially as employment conditions improved and consumer confidence gradually returned. However, affordability and lending policy changes continued to shape buyer decisions.

Sales and Inventory Trends

• Sales Volume: While home sales remained below long-term averages, there was a year-over-year increase, suggesting a more balanced market than in 2016.

• Inventory Levels: A surplus of available homes put downward pressure on prices, particularly in the apartment segment, where oversupply was most pronounced.

• Price Trends: Benchmark prices remained relatively stable but showed a slight decline in certain segments due to high inventory and cautious consumer spending.

Segment Performance

1. Detached Homes: The detached market saw signs of stabilization, with steady demand in mid-priced homes. However, high-end properties continued to experience slower turnover due to affordability concerns and shifting buyer preferences.

2. Apartment Condominiums: This sector faced the greatest challenges, with oversupply leading to prolonged market times and price declines. Buyer demand remained soft as affordability constraints and investor hesitation persisted.

3. Attached Homes: Townhouses and duplexes performed moderately, with balanced supply and demand dynamics. While prices remained stable, this segment benefited from buyers looking for affordable alternatives to detached homes.

Economic Influences

The market was shaped by broader economic conditions, including:

• Oil Prices and Employment: A gradual recovery in Alberta’s energy sector provided optimism, but job growth remained slow, impacting purchasing power.

• Mortgage Regulations: New federal mortgage stress tests affected buyer qualification, leading to shifts in market activity, particularly in the entry-level segments.

• Interest Rates: While rates remained low, expectations of future increases encouraged some buyers to enter the market sooner rather than later.

Market Outlook

Looking ahead, Calgary’s real estate market was expected to continue stabilizing, with gradual improvements in sales activity and demand. Price growth was anticipated to remain modest, with certain segments, particularly detached homes, faring better than others.

However, economic recovery, government policies, and lending conditions would continue to play a crucial role in shaping market performance throughout the year.

Conclusion

While Calgary’s real estate market in January 2017 showed early signs of recovery, challenges remained, particularly in inventory management and buyer affordability. The market was in a transitional phase, with potential for gradual improvement in the coming months. Sellers needed to remain competitive in pricing, while buyers had opportunities to enter the market under favorable conditions.

Calgary MLS sales and average prices so far in August are higher than the same time last year.

From August 1 to August 19, there have been 1,004 MLS transactions in the city, up 0.70 per cent from the same period last year and the average sale price has risen by 1.07 per cent to $412,456.

In the single-family sector, sales of 692 are down 2.54 per cent from last year but the average sale price of $468,133 is up 2.37 per cent.

In the condo apartment category, the sales of 172 are the same as August 2011 but the average price has jumped by 6.76 per cent to $275,172.

And in the condo townhouse sector, the average sale price has dipped by 6.99 per cent to $305,913 but sales have increased by 21.74 per cent to 140.

The Calgary real estate market showcased remarkable stability and growth in April 2005, setting new records for listings and sales through the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®).

A record-breaking 4,226 residential listings entered the market, up slightly from 4,165 in March 2005 and 4,109 in April 2004. This included 3,056 single-family homes, 1,118 condominiums, and 52 mobile homes. Year-to-date, 15,325 residential listings have been recorded, reflecting a strong market supply.

Residential sales also reached unprecedented levels, with 3,216 units sold in April 2005, marking a 24.07% increase over April 2004 and an 8.39% rise from March 2005. Sales comprised 2,358 single-family homes, 844 condominiums, and 14 mobile homes. Year-to-date sales totaled 10,013 units, up from 8,816 during the same period in 2004.

The average combined residential sale price in April 2005 was $249,331, a 13.27% increase from April 2004 but slightly below March’s $250,285. Year-to-date, the average price stood at $246,535, compared to $220,405 last year. Single-family homes averaged $274,126, condominiums $183,528, and mobile homes $40,157. The median combined residential price was $221,500, up 0.68% from March and 9.11% from April 2004.

Calgary’s thriving market reflects its robust economy, bolstered by low interest rates and healthy in-migration. According to Calgary Real Estate Board President Marilyn Jones, these factors are driving sustained market strength.

With 4,705 licensed brokers and agents across 257 broker offices, the Calgary Real Estate Board continues to support this dynamic and growing market.