• Total Sales: 139 (+57.9% Y/Y)

• New Listings: 243 (+46.4% Y/Y)

• Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio: 57.2% – a balanced to slightly seller-leaning market

• Average Inventory: 159 (+65.9% Y/Y)

• Months of Supply: 3.42 (+5.0% Y/Y)

• Average Days on Market: 46 (+21.2% Y/Y)

• Benchmark Price: $571,633 (▼ 5.0% Y/Y)

• Median Price: $638,500 (▼ 7.9% Y/Y)

• Average Price: $672,548 (▼ 10.7% Y/Y)

Despite softer prices, Mahogany remains one of Calgary’s most active lake communities, with buyer activity well above its 10-year average (81 quarterly sales).

Market Trends by Property Type

Detached Homes

• Sales: 72

• Benchmark Price: $806,367 (▼ 1.9% Y/Y)

• Median Price: $755,000 (▼ 5.6% Y/Y)

• Average Price: $816,008 (▼ 9.7% Y/Y)
  Detached listings continue to dominate, with strong demand for family-sized two-storey homes near the lake. Price adjustments indicate buyers are showing greater price sensitivity amid higher inventory.

Semi-Detached Homes

• Benchmark Price: $571,767 (▼ 1.5% Y/Y)

• Median Price: $604,950 (▼ 2.4% Y/Y)

• Average Price: $539,540 (▼ 4.7% Y/Y)
  Semi-detached units saw modest price declines and balanced turnover, attracting entry-upsize buyers seeking proximity to amenities without detached-level pricing.

Row / Townhomes

• Benchmark Price: $483,200 (▼ 2.9% Y/Y)

• Median Price: $536,000 (▼ 4.7% Y/Y)**
  Row homes remain competitive options for young professionals and investors, with stable absorption and affordability relative to detached homes.

Apartments

• Benchmark Price: $344,100 (▼ 7.7% Y/Y)

• Median Price: $356,500 (▼ 11.8% Y/Y)
  Apartment prices show the steepest year-over-year decline, but the segment benefits from continued rental demand and increased investor interest due to Calgary’s strong population growth.

Price Distribution

The majority of Mahogany’s Q3 2025 sales occurred between $600,000 – $799,999, followed by activity in the $400,000 – $599,999 band. Luxury homes ($1 million +) represent a smaller but steady niche.

Market Insights

• The increase in listings and modestly slower absorption suggest a normalizing market following the pandemic-era highs.

• Buyers have more selection, particularly in apartment and mid-range detached homes.

• Sellers remain in a good position if pricing realistically and emphasizing community lifestyle value.

Community News (Fall 2025)

Mahogany continues to enhance its family-focused, lake-lifestyle community:

• Mahogany Harvest Market at West Beach (October 2025): Local artisans, produce, and food vendors celebrate the season.

• Mahogany Urban Village Progress: Ongoing commercial and retail expansion (restaurants, clinics, boutique services) strengthens walkability and local amenities.

• Future Infrastructure: Anticipated completion of new southeast Calgary transit corridor will improve accessibility for commuters by 2026.

Heading into Q4 2025, Mahogany’s market is expected to stabilize further, with inventory levels moderating and prices holding near current benchmarks. The community’s lake access, school catchments, and vibrant amenities continue to make it one of the most desirable master-planned areas in Calgary’s southeast.

Contact us for a Free Home Evaluation.

• Total sales: 118 — up 11.3% year-over-year.

• New listings: 164 — up 8.6% Y/Y; sales/new-listings (S/NL) ratio ~72%, indicating a still-active market with solid absorption of new supply.

• Benchmark price: $620,867, down ~3.5% Y/Y; Median price: $545,500; Average price: $593,235.

• Average days on market (DOM): 37 days

Market trends by property type

Detached

• Sales: 54 (largest share of Q3 sales).

• Benchmark price (detached): ~$804,300; median detached price ~$748,650. Detached benchmark shows small Q/Q and Y/Y movements but remains the highest among types.

• Trend: Detached homes continue to lead sales by volume and price; market remains competitive compared with other types, though benchmark has softened modestly Y/Y.

Semi-detached

• Sales: 13

• Benchmark price: $524,600

• Trend: Smaller sales volume but stronger price stability — semi-detached prices near mid-market and showing modest annual change.

Row (townhouse)

• Sales: 15

• Benchmark price: $455,233

• Trend: Townhomes remain an important mid-price option; inventory and months-of-supply indicate buyers have more choice than for detached product.

Apartment

• Sales: 36 

• Benchmark price: $351,500 

• Trend: Apartment product represents the entry price point for many buyers; benchmark and median are considerably lower than other types, supporting demand from first-time and downsizing buyers.

Inventory & market balance

• Average inventory: 89 active listings and months of supply ≈ 2.25 months — a sellers’/balanced leaning market (under ~3 months typically indicates tighter conditions).

• S/NL ratio ~72% — shows strong absorption of newly listed stock, keeping upward pressure on prices in pockets despite a modest Y/Y benchmark decline.

Buyer / seller signals

• Faster turnover suggests buyers are still active — however benchmark price decline Y/Y (-3.5%) indicates some price pressure overall, likely reflecting broader market conditions (higher borrowing costs, seasonal shifts, or more supply in certain price bands).

• Price segmentation: Detached remains highest-priced; apartments and row units provide more affordable entry points — expect continued demand for mid/affordable price ranges.

Quick takeaways for sellers / buyers

• Sellers: Proper pricing still matters — strong S/NL ratio and DOM ~37 means well-priced homes move; detached properties command the top dollar.

• Buyers: More choices in apartment/row segments and slightly softer benchmark prices create opportunities for negotiation, especially off-peak or in higher inventory price bands.

• Investors: Months of supply (~2.25) and S/NL near 72% show continued demand; monitor mortgage-rate developments and vacancy/condo supply if pursuing apartments.

Contact us for a Free Home Evaluation.

Q3 2025 activity in Seton remains strong versus its 10-year average (only 21 quarterly sales historically). Inventory growth and slightly longer selling times show the market cooling from 2023-24 highs, but buyer demand continues thanks to Seton’s live-work-shop convenience.

Market Trends by Property Type

Detached Homes

• Benchmark Price: $753,033 (▼ 2.7 % Y/Y)

• Median Price: $705,450 (▼ 7.2 %)

• Average Price: $709,356 (▼ 6.5 %)

• Average DOM: 76 days
  Detached remains the premium segment. Price softening reflects higher inventory (6.4 months of supply), but demand persists for newer 2020-built two-storey homes averaging 1,786 sq ft

Semi-Detached Homes

• Benchmark Price: $583,500 (▼ 1.6 %)

• Median Price: $598,000 (+ 2.3 %)

• Average Price: $584,500 ( no change )
  Balanced conditions; affordability attracts young families and move-up buyers. Semi-detached units average 1,128 sq ft above grade, built 2019-2020.

Row Townhomes

• Benchmark Price: $470,733 (▼ 1.0 %)

• Median Price: $442,000 (▼ 9.7 %)
  Townhome supply rose, creating more buyer choice. This segment remains the entry point for homeowners seeking attached living close to amenities.

Apartments

• Benchmark Price: $362,467 (▼ 4.4 %)

• Median Price: $340,000 (▼ 9.3 %)
  Condo demand stays solid thanks to affordability, though price corrections reflect rising inventory. Many units are modern 2-bedroom suites (~883 sq ft) built 2019.

Price Bands & Market Balance

Most Q3 2025 transactions occurred between $400K – $699K.
Apartments dominate the lower brackets (< $400K), while detached homes anchor $700K – $900K.
Sales-to-new-listings ratio ≈ 50 % and 4.6 months of supply = balanced market—neither strongly buyer nor seller-favoured.

🏘 Community News & Events (Fall 2025)

Seton Urban District Expansion
Construction continues on the Seton South Urban Centre, adding new retail, dining, and residential spaces by mid-2026.

Brookfield Residential Community Events

• Seton Night Market (Fall Series) – Local vendors, live music at Seton Urban District Plaza.

• Halloween in the Square – Family-friendly trick-or-treat and pumpkin walk.

• Seton Wellness Week – Partnership with South Health Campus offering free fitness and nutrition seminars.

Transportation & Infrastructure

• Calgary Transit Green Line Stage 1 construction progresses north of Seton, expected to connect to the community by 2027.

• Improved access to Deerfoot Trail and Stoney Trail has reduced commute times to downtown.

🏫 Schools Serving Seton

Public Schools

• Joane Cardinal-Schubert High School (gr. 10-12) — located within Seton.

• Cranston School (K-6) and Dr. George Stanley School (5-9) serve adjacent areas until a dedicated Seton K-9 school opens.

Catholic Schools

• Our Lady of the Rosary School (K-6) – Cranston.

• All Saints High School (gr. 10-12) – Seton.

Seton’s Q3 2025 figures show a healthy, balanced market:

• Prices have moderated after rapid pandemic-era growth.

• Inventory expansion is creating opportunities for first-time buyers and investors.

• Ongoing commercial and infrastructure growth keeps Seton one of Calgary’s fastest-developing urban centres.

Contact us for a Free Home Evaluation.

• Publication Date & Scope: The Fraser Institute's 2024 "Report Card on Alberta’s Elementary Schools" was released in 2024, covering 730 schools across public, separate, independent, and charter systems

• Improvement Spotlight — Banff Elementary: Among the most notable stories of improvement, Banff Elementary School (public) rose from a score of 6.1 in 2017 to an impressive 9 in 2023

Calgary’s Top Performers in 2022–23 (per available data)

While the 2024 public release didn’t outline Calgary’s full ranking list, earlier data (2022–23) offers insights into top schools in Calgary:

• Clear Water, Master’s, Renert, and Webber all achieved a perfect 10/10 rating and are tied for 1st place among all of Alberta

• Other high performers include:

  • Calgary French & International — 9.8 (rank 5)

  • Holy Name, Sunalta — 9.6 (rank 9)

  • Louis Pasteur, Rundle College — 9.4 (rank 13)

  • St. Joan of Arc — 9.3 (rank 16)

These top-caliber schools are clustered among both public and private institutions.

FFCA Charter Schools — 2025 Update

• The Foundation for the Future Charter Academy (FFCA), which includes six combined elementary-middle campuses, achieved an overall provincial rank of 28 out of 858 elementary-level schools, placing them in the 97th percentile. This marks their highest-ever ranking to date.

A Balanced View

It’s worth noting that the Alberta Teachers Association (ATA) and certain school divisions have criticized the Fraser Institute’s methodology. They argue that the rankings:

• Rely heavily on Provincial Achievement Test (PAT) results.

• Do not account for socioeconomic context, student diversity, special needs, and broader school qualities 

What Parents Should Consider

Rankings offer useful starting points but shouldn’t drive decisions alone. Consider:

• Visiting schools in person.

• Talking to administrators and teachers.

• Reviewing programs beyond test scores.

• Assessing school atmosphere, values, and fit with your child’s needs.

• Sales: 43 (↑65% y/y)

• New listings: 44 (↓12% y/y)

• Active inventory (end of month): 85 (↑73% y/y)

• Months of supply: 1.98 (tight but easing vs earlier this year)

• Benchmark (Total Residential): $623,200.

By Property Type — What’s Moving

Detached

• Sales: 21 (↑50% y/y)

• New listings: 23

• Inventory: 44

• Months of supply: 2.11

• Benchmark price: $805,900.
  Takeaway: healthy demand with balanced-leaning conditions.

Semi-Detached (Duplex)

• Sales: 8 (↑300% y/y)

• New listings: 4

• Inventory: 2

• Months of supply: 0.71

• Benchmark price: $526,200.
  Takeaway: severe shortage—multiple-offer risk remains highest here.

Row/Townhouse

• Sales: 3 (↓40% y/y)

• New listings: 6

• Inventory: 13

• Months of supply: ~4.33

• Benchmark price: $454,800.
  Takeaway: the softest segment right now; buyers have selection and leverage.

Apartment

• Sales: 11 (↑120% y/y)

• New listings: 11

• Inventory: 26

• Months of supply: 2.36

• Benchmark price: $350,700.
  Takeaway: activity is up and conditions are reasonably tight for well-presented units.

Year-to-Date Context (Jan–Aug 2025)

• Sales: 290 (↓15% vs 2024 YTD)

• New listings: 467 (↑11% YTD)

• Months of supply (avg): 2.24

• YTD Benchmark (Total Residential): $629,400 (↓2% y/y).

What This Means (Actionable Insight)

• Sellers:

  • Semi-detached: price assertively and prep for multiple offers; speed matters with sub-1 month supply.

  • Detached & condos: list crisp and market-ready; you’re in a lean-to-balanced pocket (2–2.4 MOS).

  • Row/townhomes: differentiate—professional staging, minor updates, and sharp pricing to win showings in a ~4+ MOS environment.

• Buyers:

  • Row/townhomes offer the best negotiating window.

  • Detached/condo purchasers should be pre-approved and move promptly on the top 10% of listings.

  • Watch segment-specific MOS to gauge leverage before writing.

Schools (quick orientation for families)

• Auburn Bay is served by a mix of public (CBE) and Catholic (CCSD) designated schools, with elementary options in/near the community and designated junior/senior high schools in nearby SE catchments. Designations can vary by address and year—buyers should verify with CBE/CCSD school-finder tools when short-listing homes.

Shopping, Services & Daily Convenience

• Auburn Station (inside the community) covers everyday needs (groceries, coffee, services).

• Seton Urban District (minutes away) adds big-box retail, dining, the South Health Campus, YMCA, movie theatre, and professional services—handy for commuters and hospital staff.

• Nearby hubs (Mahogany/130th Ave SE) broaden options for dining, specialty grocers, and home goods.

Community Lifestyle & Events

• Auburn Bay is a four-season lake community anchored by Auburn House and private beach/park space. Typical programming includes:

  • Summer: lake/beach access, paddle craft, fishing derbies, kids’ day camps, outdoor movies.

  • Shoulder seasons: community markets, fitness & arts programs.

  • Winter: skating on maintained rinks, holiday light events, family festivals.
    Residents’ Association programming varies by month—great talking point at showings and for buyer discovery days.

Your Quick Script (for listing appointments or buyer tours)

• “Semis are on fire with ~0.7 months of supply—if you’re selling, we’ll stage light, launch on a Thursday, and set offer expectations for the weekend.”

• “Row inventory is deeper—we’ll target price-to-presentation to beat competing actives and use DOM data to time price reviews.”

• “Detached holds steady: fair competition, but the top 10% of homes still move fast at/near ask when turnkey.”

Contact us for a Free Home Evaluation.

供应选择的改善正在改变卡尔加里的市场动态，并在过去几个月推动了价格下跌。公寓和排屋的价格调整幅度较大，而独立屋和半独立屋住宅的价格仅出现温和下降。截至八月，整体住宅市场基准价格为$577,200元，较上月下降，并比去年同期低近4%。

“在看待价格调整时需要有整体视角。最显著的价格调整出现在排屋和公寓类型，因为它们也是供应选择增幅最大的物业类型。” CREB® 首席经济学家 Ann-Marie Lurie 表示，“与此同时，独立屋和半独立屋市场的价格调整，从部分区域的温和上涨到供应大幅增加区域的较大幅度下跌不等。总体来看，近期的价格调整并未抵消过去几年所取得的价格增长。”

八月份的销售量为1,989笔，比去年同期低近9%。与过去四年报告的高水平相比，销售有所放缓。然而，活动量仍高于长期趋势，反映出相对强劲的需求。发生变化的是供应情况。新上市量依然处于高位，使得销售与新上市比率维持在60%以下，并将库存推高至6,661套，这是自2019年以来八月的最高水平。

更多的库存选择与较低的销售相结合，使八月的供求比上升至3.4个月，这远高于过去四年所处的卖方市场状况，但仍远低于疫情前的买方市场水平。尽管与去年相比，市场现在更加平衡，但根据物业类型、价格区间和地理位置的不同，差异仍然显著。

独立屋（Detached）

八月份独立屋销售量放缓至995套，而新上市数量增加至1,748套，使销售与新上市比率保持在60%以下。这阻止了库存出现显著变化，库存量达到3,051套，是自2020年以来八月的最高水平。较高的库存水平和供应放缓有助于平衡独立屋市场。然而，东北区、北区和东区正经历买方市场状况。

八月份市场基准价格为$755,600元，较上月和去年同期下降近1%。尽管价格有所放缓，但不同区域差异显著。与去年相比，东北区和东区的价格降幅最大，达到5%；而市中心价格则上涨超过2%。由于大部分调整发生在过去几个月，今年迄今为止卡尔加里的价格仍比去年高出2%。

半独立屋（Semi-Detached）
八月份的销售量较去年有所提升，但不足以抵消之前的回落，年初至今的销售量为1,557套，比去年低8%，但仍高于长期趋势。同时，新上市数量放缓，相对于销售推动销售与新上市比率升至67%，并防止了库存的进一步增长。该物业类型的库存增长幅度不大，八月份的供求比仍低于3个月。这是价格未出现大幅调整的原因之一。

八月份的市场基准价格为$687,200元，较上月下降，但比去年同期高出近1%，年初至今则高出近4%。价格增长在全市范围内差异较大，市中心的年增幅最大；而东北区、东区和北区则出现了最大降幅。

排屋（Row）
八月份销售放缓，导致年初至今的销售量下降近16%。虽然与去年及上月相比，八月新上市量有所减少，但总体上仍处于上升趋势，推动了库存水平的上升。八月份库存达到1,103套，是八月历史上第二高水平，仅略低于2018年创下的纪录。由于销售仍相对强劲，供求比仅略微升至3个月以上，远比去年更平衡，但仍未达到2018年6.4个月的水平。

尽管如此，额外的供应选择对价格形成压力。八月份，排屋的市场基准价格为$439,600元，连续第四个月下跌，较去年同期低近5%。虽然各区价格均有所下降，但东北区、北区、南区和东区的价格降幅超过5%。这些区域的二手房供应普遍处于高位，或面临新房供应的显著竞争。

公寓（Apartment Condominium）
八月份销售继续放缓，导致年初至今的销售量下跌近30%。虽然销售仍高于长期趋势，但不足以抵消市场中新上市的水平。仅八月就有877套新上市，而销售量为449套，使销售与新上市比率维持在51%的低位。今年以来持续的低比率，推动了市场库存的增加。虽然八月库存量较上月没有上升，但以1,979套的水平，创下了有记录以来八月的最高库存。

自六月以来，公寓的供求比一直维持在约4个月。相对过剩的供应正在压低价格。截至八月，市场基准价格为$326,500元，已连续第五个月下降，比去年同期低近6%。大部分供应集中在市中心，该区域的价格同比下降5%，略高于西区报告的3%降幅。同时，东北区价格降幅最大，超过11%。

卡尔加里周边城镇

Airdrie
八月份销售放缓，导致年初至今的销售量下降12%，今年累计成交量为1,248套。本月152宗销售对应265宗新上市，使销售与新上市比率上升至57%，并阻止了库存的进一步增长。截至八月，库存为535套，高于长期趋势，也是疫情前以来的最高水平。供应的增加帮助市场转向更加平衡的状态。然而，由于新房、二手房市场以及周边区域的更多供应选择，艾尔德里的价格承受了一定下行压力。八月份的整体住宅基准价格为$531,100元，较上月下降，并比去年同期低4%。

Cochrane

本月70宗销售对应139宗新上市，使销售与新上市比率下降至50%，这是自2015年以来八月的最低水平。与新上市相比，销售的回落阻止了库存水平出现显著变化，并将供求比推高至四个月以上。尽管本月出现了这种变化，科克伦的价格在八月仍保持相对稳定，市场基准价格为$589,100元，与上月相近，比去年同期高出近2%。从年初至今来看，价格比去年高出4%。

Okotoks
八月份的新上市量相较销售出现显著回落，使销售与新上市比率上升至80%。尽管销售总体仍与长期趋势保持一致，但新上市数量并未像其他地区那样增加，从而阻止了库存水平的显著增长。截至八月，库存为116套，比去年同期增长29%，但仍比传统八月水平低30%。尽管市场条件趋紧，价格在月度上出现了一些下降。然而，年初至今的市场基准价格仍比去年高出2%，并且各类物业均录得价格增长。

（在DrumHeller以南，阿省依然有30套低于$15万的独立屋）

Sales & Listings:

• Total Sales: 46 homes (unchanged YoY)

• New Listings: 71 (⬆ 51% YoY)

• Inventory: 101 active listings (⬆ 216% YoY)

• Sales-to-New Listings Ratio: 0.65 — indicating a balanced to buyer’s market

• Months of Supply: 2.20 — a slight increase, still below balanced market threshold

Benchmark Prices (YoY):

• Total Residential: $623,300 (⬇ 4.2%)

• Detached: $810,200 (⬇ 0.6%)

• Semi-Detached: $526,800 (⬆ 1.7%)

• Row House: $460,700 (⬆ 1.1%)

• Apartment: $355,000 (⬇ 2.8%)

Average Days on Market: 35
Sale-to-List Price Ratio: 98.0%

💡 Market Insights

• Inventory surge (+216%) is giving buyers more options and reducing upward price pressure.

• Detached homes remain the dominant product, but higher interest rates and affordability challenges are fueling interest in row houses and apartments.

• Apartments saw the steepest year-over-year price drop, possibly due to increased competition and a higher supply in this segment.

💼 Investment Outlook

With growing inventory and slight price softening, Auburn Bay offers strategic buying opportunities:

• First-time buyers can enter via apartments or row homes

• Investors may benefit from rental demand driven by lake access, amenities, and proximity to Seton Urban District and South Health Campus

• Move-up buyers can find upgraded detached homes at relatively stable prices

🧭 Looking Ahead

If current trends continue, we may see stable pricing but longer selling times as buyers gain more leverage. However, the enduring popularity of lake communities like Auburn Bay should support long-term value.

Contact us for a Free Home Evaluation.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) unveiled the results of its fifth cycle of the Social and Affordable Housing Survey – Rental Structures (SAHS‑RS), revealing key trends in Canada’s non‑market rental housing sector on July 22, 2025.

Coverage and Response

The survey covers nearly 593,000 units across Canada, with the highest share located in Ontario (56.1%), followed by British Columbia (11.5%), Quebec (9.4%), Alberta (6.7%), and other provinces and territories. Almost 60% of these units are concentrated in eight major Census Metropolitan Areas, including Toronto (30%), Vancouver (6%), Montréal (5.3%), Edmonton, Winnipeg, Calgary, Windsor, Victoria, Kitchener–Waterloo, and St. Catharines–Niagara .

Response rates inched up from 66% to 76% nationally, as CMHC expanded administrative data coverage and refined its sampling—though Quebec remains partially excluded due to missing data from structures managed by the Société d'habitation du Québec (SHQ).

Management and Funding of Units

The survey breaks down unit management as follows:

• 53% government-run (federal, provincial, municipal)

• 26% non‑profit organizations

• 7% cooperatives

• 17% private entities or joint partnerships

This reflects a longstanding dominance of government and non‑profit providers in Canada’s social housing landscape.

In terms of funding sources:

• Federal government: 17%

• Provincial/Territorial: 23%

• Municipal: 30%

• Other organizations or mixed sources: 11%

• No formal funding agreement: 19%—this was particularly acute in the Northwest Territories (no agreements), contrasting with only 1% in New Brunswick and 5% in Quebec lacking agreements.

For operational deficit funding:

• Federal: 1.5%

• Provincial/Territorial: 24%

• Municipal: 32.4%

• Other or mixed: 5.6%

• No coverage: 36.5%—varied by region. For example, 95% of Saskatchewan’s units lacked operational deficit funding, compared to just 5% in Manitoba.

Demographics and Tenant Groups

CMHC asked providers what populations they were mandated to serve:

• Seniors: 33%

• Families with children: 25%

• Single men or women: ~11% each

• Persons with physical or mental disabilities: ~4% each

Single-person tenants were less common in Saskatchewan and Alberta (1–5%), but represented 15–25% of the clientele in other provinces.

In terms of service providers:

• 56% of clientele served by government bodies

• 29% served by non‑profits

• Services for veterans, persons with disabilities, First Nations, Métis, Inuit, immigrants, refugees, victims of domestic violence, and formerly homeless individuals were twice as likely to be provided by non‑profits compared with governments.

Age and Condition of the Housing Stock

The sector’s housing stock is aging:

• 15% built after 1995

• 35% built between 1980 and 1995

• 49% built before 1980

In Quebec and the three territories, over one‑third of units were built post‑2003. In contrast, Ontario, the Prairies and Atlantic provinces have 65–90% of stock built before 1987.

Regarding building condition:

• 43.5% of units rated as excellent/good

• 19% rated average

• 37.3% rated fair or poor — a pattern largely consistent with the 2023 survey, except Saskatchewan saw a sharp shift from average to fair condition (increasing fair-rated units from ~31% to ~79%).

Newer buildings fare better: 77% of units built after 2003 were in excellent or good condition, compared to 38% of older units (pre-2003) receiving that rating.

Why It Matters

These results show a non‑market housing sector that is heavily government-supported but aging, with significant regional disparities, especially in funding coverage and building condition. The rising number of units in fair or poor condition—particularly among older stock—highlights the critical need for renovation and investment. The unequal distribution of operational deficit funding and the significant share of units serving marginalized populations underscore ongoing equity challenges for social housing policy in Canada.

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For the second time this year, the Canadian Real Estate Association has downgraded its forecast for home sales in 2025, even as it says a turnaround could be looming following increased activity in June.

                                                                                Sammy Hudes, The Canadian Press Jul 15, 2025 1:12 PM

For the second time this year, the Canadian Real Estate Association has downgraded its forecast for home sales in 2025, even as it says a turnaround could be looming following increased activity in June.

The association reported that the number of homes changing hands across the country in June rose 3.5 per cent compared with a year ago. Canadian home sales last month also increased 2.8 per cent compared with May on a seasonally adjusted basis.

In its outlook released Tuesday, CREA said it now expects a total of 469,503 residential properties to be sold this year, a three per cent decline from 2024. In April, the association forecast the number of home sales for 2025 to remain essentially unchanged from last year, which itself marked a steep cut from its January forecast of an 8.6 per cent year-over-year increase.

The national average home price is forecast to fall 1.7 per cent on an annual basis to $677,368 in 2025, which would be around $10,000 lower than predicted in April.

CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart said that despite a "chaotic start to the year," the latest data suggests the housing market rebound originally forecast for this year — before it was upended by the Canada-U.S. trade war — may have "only been delayed by a few months."

“At the national level, June was pretty close to a carbon copy of May," said Cathcart in a press release, cautioning "we’re not out of the woods yet" given U.S. President Donald Trump's latest 35 per cent tariff threat.

The association said the tariff-related uncertainty that drove so many buyers back to the sidelines earlier this year ended up taking a larger bite out of activity in B.C., Alberta and Ontario than was expected three months ago, but "the good news is markets appear to be entering their long-expected recovery phase, fuelled by pent-up demand, lower interest rates, and an economy that is expected to avoid worst-case tariff scenarios."

“Most housing markets continued to turn a corner in June, although market conditions still vary considerably depending on where you are in Canada,” said CREA chair Valérie Paquin.

“If the spring market was mostly held back by economic uncertainty, barring any further big shocks, that delayed activity could very likely surface this summer and into the fall."

CREA said it now forecasts national home sales in 2026 to improve by 6.3 per cent to 499,081. That would put activity back on track with what was expected in its April forecast, when it predicted a 2.9 per cent gain in sales next year.

The national average home price is expected to increase three per cent from 2025 to $697,929 next year.

Meanwhile, the national average sale price fell 1.3 per cent in June compared with a year earlier to $691,643.

There were 47,871 home sales recorded last month, up from 46,237 in June 2024. The association said the recovery in sales activity over the past two months was led overwhelmingly by the Greater Toronto Area.

Still, activity remains slower than usual, said Cameron Forbes, a Toronto-area broker and general manager at Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc.

"The uncertainty of the Trump tariffs and the impact on, certainly in Ontario, the manufacturing context and everything, still has a lot of buyers on the sidelines that probably shouldn't be," said Forbes in an interview.

"It's still a market where I think buyers are unfortunately a bit uncertain. Many of them who have jobs, who have security of those jobs, who have equity in homes, that would be a great time for them to make a trade to a preferred location or a larger home for their family, but they are looking at the headlines and seeing the uncertainty related to tariffs."

The number of newly listed properties throughout the country was down 2.9 per cent month-over-month from May. A total of 206,435 properties were listed for sale by the end of the month, up 11.4 per cent from a year earlier and just one per cent below the long-term average for this time of the year.

"June's sales performance came in broadly as expected, with Canadian transactions continuing their gradual recovery from their early-year depths," said TD economist Marc Ercolao in a note.

"We expect home sales will continue to rise in the second half of the year as pent-up demand continues to trickle into the market. That said, the sales level should remain subdued as economic uncertainty remains elevated, especially with Canada facing new tariff threats."

BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic said there are three major factors still holding back the housing market, including a "sluggish" job market being aggravated by the trade war. With the Bank of Canada holding its key policy rate steady, he said mortgage rates of around four per cent are also "not low enough to improve the affordability calculus in a demand-sparking way."

"And, market psychology now appears bearish," said Kavcic in a note.

"Just as expectations of higher prices drove accelerating gains on the way up, the understanding that prices are falling is holding back buyers on the way down in some locations."

Forbes added that much is riding on the outcome of ongoing trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S., which currently hold an Aug. 1 deadline. Reaching a compromise could prompt buyers to return, leading to a more "healthy market," he said.

But failing to reach an agreement on time would mean further uncertainty in the housing market, he said.

"If that's the case, then we'll continue to have fewer sales for at least the next three or four months until the impacts of whatever comes to fruition are better known."

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Rents easing across most major markets but many tenants not feeling relief: CMHC

Higher turnover rents in several major rental markets have decreased tenant mobility, leading to longer average tenancy periods and "more substantial" rent increases when tenants do move, says CMHC.

Canada's housing agency says advertised rents in some major cities are easing due to factors such as increased supply and slower immigration, but renters are still not feeling relief.

In its mid-year rental market update released Tuesday, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said average asking rents for a two-bedroom purpose-built apartment were down year-over-year in four of seven markets.

Vancouver led the way with a 4.9 per cent decrease in the first quarter of 2025, followed by drops of 4.2 per cent in Halifax, 3.7 per cent in Toronto and 3.5 per cent in Calgary. Average asking rents grew 3.9 per cent in Edmonton, 2.1 per cent in Ottawa and two per cent in Montreal, compared with the first quarter of 2024.

Landlords reported that vacant units are taking longer to lease, CMHC said, especially for new purpose-built rental units in Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary, where they face competition from well-supplied secondary rentals such as condominium units and single-family homes.

"Purpose-built rental operators are responding to market conditions by offering incentives to new tenants such as one month of free rent, moving allowances and signing bonuses," the report said, adding some landlords anticipate they may need to lower rents over the next couple of years.

The agency said rents for occupied units are continuing to rise but at a slower pace than a year ago. It said higher turnover rents in several major rental markets have decreased tenant mobility, leading to longer average tenancy periods and "more substantial" rent increases when tenants do move.

In 2024, the gap in rental prices between vacant and occupied two-bedroom units reached 44 per cent in Toronto, the highest among major cities, while Edmonton had the smallest gap at roughly five per cent.

Vacancy rates are expected to rise in most major cities this year amid slower population growth and sluggish job markets, CMHC said.

"As demand struggles to keep pace with new supply, the market will remain in a period of adjustment. This is particularly true in Ontario due to lowered international migration targets, especially in areas near post-secondary institutions," the report stated.

"While the market may have abundant supply in the short-term, there is still a need to maintain momentum in new rental supply to meet the needs of projected future population growth and to achieve better affordability outcomes for existing households."

Despite downward pressure on rent prices, CMHC said affordability has still worsened over time as rent-to-income ratios have steadily risen since 2020, especially in regions like Vancouver and Toronto where turnover rents are driving increases.

A separate report released Tuesday outlined similar trends across the national rental market last month.

The latest monthly report from Rentals.ca and Urbanation said asking rents for all residential properties in Canada fell 2.7 per cent year-over-year in June to $2,125, marking the ninth consecutive month of annual rent decreases.

Despite the drop, average asking rents remained 11.9 per cent above levels from three years ago and 4.1 per cent higher than two years ago, "underscoring the long-term inflationary pressure in the rental market," the report said.

Purpose-built apartment asking rents fell 1.1 per cent from a year ago to an average of $2,098, while asking rents for condos dropped 4.9 per cent to $2,207. Rents within houses and town homes fell 6.6 per cent to $2,178.

“Rent decreases at the national level have been mild so far, with the biggest declines mainly seen in the largest and most expensive cities," Urbanation president Shaun Hildebrand said in a news release.

"However, it appears that the softening in rents has begun to spread throughout most parts of the country.”

B.C. and Alberta recorded the largest decreases in June, with asking rents falling 3.1 per cent year-over-year in each province to an average of $2,472 in B.C. and $1,741 in Alberta.

That was followed by Ontario's 2.3 per cent decrease to $2,329, Manitoba's 1.3 per cent decrease to $1,625 and Quebec's 0.9 per cent decrease to $1,960. Nova Scotia's average asking rent ticked 0.1 per cent lower to $2,268, while Saskatchewan was the only province to record year-over-year growth, at 4.2 per cent, to an average of $1,396.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 8, 2025.

Sammy Hudes, The Canadian Press

Executive snapshot (Apr 1–Jun 30, 2025)

• Sales: 48 (-14% vs. Q1’s 56). New listings: 76. S-to-N ratio: 63.16% — still a clear sellers’ market.

• Average inventory: 20 homes. Months of supply: 1.27 (tight). Median DOM: 18 days.

• Benchmark price (all residential): $722,100 (+0.18% QoQ, +0.38% YoY).

• Sales mix: Detached = 89.4% of sales; Row/Townhomes ≈ 10%; Apartments = 0% (virtually no condo stock in the quarter).

How property types performed (and who’s buying them)

Detached (the McKenzie Lake staple)

• Prevalence: Nearly 9 in 10 sales were detached, underscoring the lake-community’s single-family identity.

• Pricing:

  • Two-storey benchmark: $764,267

  • Bungalow/one-storey benchmark: $718,200

• Tempo: At 1.27 MOS and 18 DOM, well-priced homes faced multiple-showing weekends and quick offers.

• Buyer profile: Move-up families targeting bedroom count, finished basements, and proximity to Mountain Park School and the Beach Club.

Row/Townhomes (rare, and moving when available)

• Share of sales: ~10% with row benchmark at $425,833; thin inventory means price discovery can be jumpy from one sale to the next.

• Buyer profile: Downsizers and first-timers seeking lake-community lifestyle at a lower entry price.

Apartments/Condos

• Activity: No apartment sales recorded in Q2; condo options remain scarce in McKenzie Lake proper.

• Buyer redirect: Condo shoppers often look to nearby lake-adjacent SE communities when they need this format.

Market interpretation

• Sellers’ market holds: A 63% sales-to-new-listings ratio with ~1.3 months of supply kept leverage with sellers; small QoQ price gains and sub-3-week median DOM confirm demand resilience.

• Seasonality vs. selection: Sales dipped from Q1, but new listings (76) gave buyers slightly more selection—important for move-up purchasers targeting two-storeys near schools and the lake amenities.

• What could shift Q3: Any late-summer listing wave could ease bidding pressure; otherwise expect continued stability around the $720k–$770k band for typical family homes, with renovated lake-access properties clearing above.

Pricing guide by property archetype (benchmarks & takeaways)

• Family two-storey (most common): $764,267 benchmark. Updated kitchens, A/C, and landscaped yards near school walk-zones drew fastest activity.

• Bungalow (downsizer favourite): $718,200 benchmark. Single-level living with modernized interiors remained competitive given limited supply.

• Row/Townhome: $425,833 benchmark. When a good one lists, expect swift interest from budget-sensitive buyers.

(Benchmarks are reference points; individual homes trade above/below based on renovation level, lake access, lot, and garage size.)

Community & lifestyle updates (Q2 highlights)

• Beach Club & programs: The McKenzie Lake Residents Association (MLRA) continued spring-to-summer operations and programming at 16199 McKenzie Lake Way SE (Beach Club Hall, outdoor amenities, rentals).

• Signature Q2 events:

  • Father’s Day Fishing Derby — June 15, 2025 (family angling & prizes).

  • Summer Food Truck Nights, Family Fun Day, Movie in the Park, Summer Send-Off (seasonal community gatherings).

• Community Association programming: The McKenzie Lake Community Association ran year-round programs (incl. tots drop-in Sep–Jun) and before/after school care for McKenzie Lake School & St. John Henry Newman (K–5).

• Newsletter notes: MyCalgary’s community newsletter reiterates MLRA amenities (tennis, basketball, beach volleyball, toboggan hill) and rental availability of the Beach Club facilities.

Schools serving McKenzie Lake buyers

• Public (CBE):

  • McKenzie Lake School — K–5; ~560 students; traditional calendar.

  • Mountain Park School — Grades 5–9; 312 Mt. Douglas Close SE; 403-777-6442.

• Catholic (CCSD):

  • St. John Henry Newman School — K–9; 16201 McKenzie Lake Blvd SE.

• Transit: Calgary Transit provides school express routes that many students use for daily commutes.

Strategy tips

For sellers

• Price tightly off the latest comps for your subtype (two-storey vs bungalow) and launch with complete pre-inspection + professional media; with ~18 DOM medians, your first two weekends matter most.

• Consider pre-listing touch-ups that resonate locally: A/C installation, deck refresh, and low-maintenance landscaping for summer showings.

For buyers

• Get financing finalized and be “offer-ready” for renovated two-storeys; at ~1.3 MOS, desirable listings don’t linger.

• If you’re price-anchored under benchmark, watch the row/townhome segment and be prepared to move quickly when one appears.

What to watch in Q3 2025

• Inventory drift: Any late-summer listing bump could nudge MOS toward balance; otherwise, expect steady pricing with slight upward bias in turnkey family homes.

• Community draw: Ongoing MLRA events and Beach Club seasonality keep foot traffic high—often translating into stronger weekend showing volumes.

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